观察可再生能源的铜强度

Visualizing the Copper Intensity of Renewable Energy

The following content is sponsored by Trilogy Metals.

May 20，2021

这个世界正在走出化石能源，朝着大规模采纳清洁能源技术迈进。

The world is moving away from fossil fuels, towards large-scale adoption of clean energy technologies.

随着这些技术的开发，也是聚集利用多种矿物的过程。从铝和铬到稀土和钴，清洁能源的转移正在创造对各种矿物的大量的需求。

Building these technologies is a mineral-intensive process. From aluminum and chromium to rare earths and cobalt, the energy transition is creating massive demand for a range of minerals.

铜就是这样一种矿物，它的突出是因为它在创建我们需要的技术和基础设施时扮演的关键角色。

Copper is one such mineral, which stands out due to its critical role in building both the technologies as well as the infrastructure that allows us to harness their power.

以上来自Trilogy Metals的信息图强调了铜在可再生能源中扮演的角色以及风能和太阳能的采纳将如何影响铜的进一步的需求

The above infographic from Trilogy Metals highlights the role of copper in renewable energy, and how the adoption of wind and solar energy will affect its demand going forward.

在可再生能源中铜的角色

Copper’s Role in Renewable Energy

铜是所有的金属中有着最高的导热性和导电性的金属之一。因此，它在能源技术中是最被广泛使用的矿物，同时对于所有与电力相关的基础设施也是必要的。

Copper has one of the highest thermal and electrical conductivity of all metals. As a result, it’s the most widely-used mineral among energy technologies and is essential for all electricity-related infrastructure.

根据Navigant Research,以下有风能和太阳能厂每兆瓦使用铜的数量。

According to Navigant Research, here’s how much copper wind and solar farms use per megawatt:

太阳能光伏的电缆、接线和热交换设备都使用铜材料，因为它在导热和导电的高效。风能技术使用红铜应用在它们的涡轮，电缆和变压器。离岸的风电场基本上会使用更大的数量因为他们是被连接到陆地通过很长的由铜制作的海底电缆。

Solar photovoltaics (PV) primarily rely on copper for cabling, wiring, and heat exchange due to its efficiency in conducting heat and electricity. Wind energy technologies make use of the red metal in their turbines, cables, and transformers. Offshore wind farms typically use larger amounts because they are connected to land via long undersea cables that are made of copper.

另外，铜也是从电厂传输电力到我们家中的电网中重要的一个部分。随着增长的可再生能源的采纳，铜的需求将只会增长。

In addition, copper is also a key part of the grid networks that transmit electricity from power plants to our homes. With the increasing adoption of renewable energy, the demand for copper will only grow.

能源过渡中的铜的强度

Copper Intensity of the Energy Transition

根据国际可再生能源机构（IRENA），太阳能和风能的安装需要显著按比例增加在IRENA的REMAP案例中。直到2050年，努力去限制全球温度上升到少于2度。

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), solar and wind energy installations need to scale up significantly under their REmap scenario, in which efforts are made to limit global temperature rise to less than 2 degrees by 2050.

基于从Navigant Research和 IRENA要求的项目容量对应的含铜量，这里是每年太阳能和风能安装所需要的铜的数量。

Based on the copper content figures from Navigant Research and IRENA’s required capacity projections, here are the copper requirements for annual solar and wind installations in 2020 and 2050:

含铜量数据的计算是通过每兆瓦铜含量的吨数乘以2020和2050年的安装兆瓦容量得出的。

Copper content figures were calculated by multiplying copper content per MW in tonnes with annual installed capacities in 2020 and 2050.

相对于2020年的水平，从太阳能光伏安装的平均的铜的需求到2030年会翻倍，很可能会涨到2050年三倍的水平。最大比重的铜需求的增长来自离岸风电场。IRENA’s REmap scenario要求在2050年，离岸风电场的安装在每年45,000兆瓦，这也意味着需要432000吨的铜，相比2020年的水平有648%的增长。

Relative to 2020 levels, annual copper demand from solar PV installations could more than double by 2030, and almost triple by 2050. The largest percentage increase in copper requirements comes from offshore wind farms. IRENA’s REmap scenario requires 45,000 MW of annual offshore wind installations in 2050, which translates into 432,000 tonnes of copper—a 648% increase from 2020 levels.

截至2050年，每年的从风能和太阳能技术的铜需求量能超过300万吨或是2020年铜产量的将近15%。然而并不清楚是否我们将有足够的铜供应来满足这增长的需求。供应能满足需求吗？

By 2050, annual copper demand from wind and solar technologies could exceed 3 million tonnes or around 15% of 2020 copper production. However, it isn’t clear whether we will have enough supply of copper to meet this growing demand.

供应能满足需求吗？

Will Supply Meet Demand?

根据花旗集团，在2021年全球铜市场预期会有521000吨的不足，而到可再生能源的转变正仍然处于早期。

According to Citigroup, the global copper market is expected to be in a 521,000 tonne deficit in 2021—and the transition to renewables is still in its early stages.

铜的需求来自一系列的行业，最主要的供应来自很少的地区，使得供应链容易受到中断的影响。2020年的矿场停工就是这样的一个例子，因为铜的产量减少了将近500000吨。

While the demand for copper comes from a range of industries, the majority of its supply comes from a few regions, making the supply chain susceptible to disruptions. Mine shutdowns in 2020 exemplified this, as copper production fell by around 500,000 tonnes.

另外，平均高矿物品位的智利，最大的铜产国已经在过去15年下跌了30%，使得更加困难去获得铜。

Additionally, average ore grades in Chile, the largest producer of copper, have fallen by 30% over the last 15 years, making it more difficult to mine copper.

虽然铜储量很丰富，但是矿石品级的下降和集中少数地区生产这两点很让人担忧，尤其是当需求正在不断增长。 因此，发掘新的铜矿产地将有助于解决清洁能源转型中日益增长的矿石需求。

Although copper is available in abundance, declining ore grades and concentrated production are a cause for concern, especially as demand rises. Therefore, new sources of copper will be valuable in meeting the growing material needs of the clean energy transition.

DeepKnowledge

翻译：

祝叶 Leaf Zhu

General Manager of ICT-Event

DKV（Deep Knowledge Volunteer）普通成员

校对：

邓秋实

中科大国家同步辐射实验室

DKV（Deep Knowledge Volunteer）创始成员

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